From Graeme Paton, The Times
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From the article
"Air passengers could face four-hour waits to board planes,
inflated ticket prices and a dramatically reduced schedule in the future,
analysts have said.
The flight experience would be “very uncomfortable”
after lockdown,
with pre-pandemic levels of service unlikely for up to five years, they
predicted.
It is widely expected that some form of health screening
will be demanded before and after passengers fly to prevent a second wave of
the virus.
One expert said that four-hour waits before departures could
be expected, up from one or two now, as medical tests were added to the normal
pre-flight ritual of check-in, security, passport control and boarding.
It is also likely that social distancing will be maintained
on aircraft, with warnings that as few as 20 per cent of seats may be
filled to keep passengers at least two metres apart.
Another analyst said that budget airlines typically had to
fill at least 80 per cent of seats to break even, so passengers could expect a
big increase in prices. Unprofitable routes will be abolished...
As carriers emerge from the crisis, it is likely that the
travel landscape will be changed in terms of cost, route availability, the
number of airlines and the flight experience. Ministers are considering a
compulsory two-week quarantine for anyone entering the country.
Andrew Charlton, managing director of the consultancy
Aviation Advocacy, said that compulsory pre-flight health checks would also be
the norm, even if they doubled waiting times at airports.
“Even if it starts raining vaccines tonight, we are still
looking at two years at least to get back to levels seen before the outbreak,
and it is probably going to be more like five years,” he told The Times.
“There will be fewer flights, fewer seats available, prices will go up and
there will be very uncomfortable conditions because of the demands to wear personal
protective equipment and maintain social distancing.
“Whereas we used to be able to turn up at the airport an
hour or two before departure, we could see something as horrible as four hours
as health checks are added to the usual palaver of check-in, security and
immigration.”
It has been suggested that passenger numbers would be cut by
a third to maintain social distancing on aircraft, with the middle seat being
left empty in each row of three.
However, the airline analyst Chris Tarry said that
maintaining a two-metre gap would require airlines to leave up to 80 per cent
of seats empty, adding: “The maximum compliant load factor would be between 20
and 25 per cent, given current cabin densities and the seat pitch. This would
act to regulate the number of passengers per flight.”
Paul Zalkin, a partner at the business advisory firm
Quantuma, said: “Budget airlines operate at a break-even load factor well in
excess of 80 per cent, so taking out all middle seats will not work, unless all
the window and aisle seat passengers subsidise the empty middle seats. That
would mean much higher ticket prices.”
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