Thursday, 10 February 2011

Is Greece Insolvent?

Item from EuroIntelligence (a very valuable source of information):
Bruegel on debt crisis exit plan
"In a new Policy Brief, Pisany-Ferry, Darvas and Sapir of Bruegel discuss
the current state of the Greek debt crisis. No matter how you look at the
problem, Greece is insolvent, they argue. Thus, the current “wait and
see” strategy will inevitably result in default. The various “soft
options” (lowering of interest rate on EFSF, extension of maturity of
EU/IMF loans, debt buybacks) might prove useful for other periphery
countries, but are not enough for Greece. The paper ends with an
assessment of potential spillovers from Greek debt restructuring, and
finds that they would be limited (the real threat coming from Irish and
Spanish banks). Their conclusion is that a 30% haircut on Greek debt, in
top of the “soft options” might prove a viable exit."

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